本の初版部数の決め方は、著者でも分からないですし、
出版社の中でも一部の人しか知らないブラックボックスの側面があります。
初版部数は著者の人気のバロメーターでもありますし、印税に直結する、
最も気になるところです。
初版部数を実際に決めていた、元大手出版社の営業が解説します。
初版部数の決め方
初版部数を決める際に重要なのは、出版社がよく使う「類書」の売れ行きです。
類書はかなり幅広い言葉なのですが、たとえばある著者が「決算書の読み方」という
タイトルで本を出す場合、別の著者の同じ内容の本のことを類書といいます。
また、その著者が以前に書いた本のことも類書といいます。（正確には「前著」です）
出版社は類書がどれだけ売れたかを、紀伊國屋書店の全店の売上を見るシステムや、
TSUTAYA、丸善ジュンク堂書店などの同様のシステムを使い予測して、
初版部数を決めているのです。
この類書の情報に加え、ビジネス書では発売時期にニュース性がある中身か、
といったことからも判断します。
初版5,000部と6,000部のどちらにするのか迷った際には、
売れる要素を加える必要があると、編集者に依頼します。
本の帯を著名人に書いてもらったり、著者のブログで宣伝をお願いしたり、
ということがあると、6,000部で初版は行こう！ と決められます。
このプラス1,000部の要素として著名人の帯が適切かというと、判断しかねるのですが、
勢いで決めてしまうこともあるのです。
初版部数は基本的には営業が決めます
初版部数の決定権は営業にあります。
それは、編集者が売ることに関与できないですし、
自ら作った本は100部でも初版を多くしたい、という心理が働き、
適正な判断ができないからです。
ただ、編集者も初版部数については当然のことですが、要望を言ってきます。
例えば大物の作家の場合、編集者から「この著者は○○出版から出した前作は、
初版10万部だったようだから、うちも10万部にしましょう」と
言ってくることがあります。
編集者としては著者との関係もあり、他社より少ない初版部数にはしたくないのです。
ここで営業は書店の売り上げシステムで数字を見るのですが、よくあるパターンとしては、
初版で10万部を刷る必要がない売れ行き、ということです。
初版は7万部で十分、という計算を営業がだすのです。
初版部数を編集者が決める場合
ではこの計算を編集者が納得するかというと、簡単には引き下がりません。
○○出版が10万部刷っているんだから、それだけ必要なんだ、と意固地になります。
そこで営業は、○○出版の知り合いの営業に電話をし、実際の初版部数と実売部数を
聞き出すのです。
ここでの多くのパターンは、○○出版のその大物作家の作品の実売数は、
調べた通り7万分なのですが、編集者の言う通り初版は10万部で、
過剰に刷っているのです。
こうなると、営業側は初版10万部は多すぎるから減らそう、ということを言いますが、
会社としての評判も気にしなくてはならなくなります。
大物作家は、他の作家ともつながっていて、いろいろな出版社の評判を言っているのです。
下手に初版部数を減らすと、ケチな出版社という評判が広がってしまうのです。
結局、編集者の言ったとおりの初版部数にする、ということが
大物作家の場合、往々にしてあるのです。
まとめ
・初版部数は営業が類書を調べて、決定します
・初版部数は、類書の大手書店の売り上げを調べて推測し、決定します
・編集者が部数を決めるのは、大物作家との関係性がからむ場合です
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